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By Mike James (Auth.)

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THEN rules that we have considered have assumed that the answer to any question was known with absolute certainty and that the presence of any given condition was always an absolute sign that the conclusion should be drawn. It is certainly clear that this is not always so! A component of human reasoning that we have ignored so far is uncertainty. There are two ways of dealing with uncertainty in reasoning. The first is traditional and based on probability. The second is fairly new and not so well developed so there is scope for experimentation.

If you were given the information that if there were black clouds in the sky outside you would have to revise your belief in rain to take this information into account. Using P(rain|dark clouds) = P(dark clouds|rain) P(rain) P(dark clouds) you can change what you believed, P(rain), before the extra information into your new belief, P(rain|dark clouds). g. a clap of thunder 54 Thinking and reasoning: expert systems was heard, you could use the same method to update what you believed once again! P(thunder|rain) P(rain|dark clouds) P(rain | thunder, dark clouds) = P(thunder) and so on.

THEN rules that we have considered have assumed that the answer to any question was known with absolute certainty and that the presence of any given condition was always an absolute sign that the conclusion should be drawn. It is certainly clear that this is not always so! A component of human reasoning that we have ignored so far is uncertainty. There are two ways of dealing with uncertainty in reasoning. The first is traditional and based on probability. The second is fairly new and not so well developed so there is scope for experimentation.

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